Alabama Vs Mississippi State Preview - 2014 CFP Spots On The Line

#1 Mississippi State takes on #4 Alabama in a Division I college football game this Saturday, November 15. There are 5 other Top 25 matchups in college football that day as well. RB Todd Gurley is back for the #15 Georgia Bulldogs, as they take on #9 Auburn "Between the Hedges" in an important SEC tilt. #8 Ohio State is on the road versus #25 Minnesota in the Big Ten, and #19 Clemson heads to #22 Georgia Tech for an ACC matchup. And #16 Nebraska battles #20 Wisconsin for ownership of the Big Ten West Division. But no game is as big as that Crimson Tide - Bulldogs contest, which will be aired on CBS at 3:30 PM, and widely covered by reputable college football betting sites. Bama was snubbed for the 3rd straight week by the CFP selection committee, and the Bulldogs want to prove they are deserving of their #1 ranking. Let's take a closer look.

Alabama backers are enraged. They believe the Tide should currently be ranked in the coveted Top 4 spots of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee's Top 25 ranking. Mississippi State has owned the #1 spot all 3 weeks that the rankings have been released. Bama sits at #5. What many believe is an overrated TCU team recently claimed the #4 spot, and a one-loss Oregon team leapfrogged undefeated Florida State for the #2 spot. Baylor has beaten TCU but is ranked #7, even though the Bears and Horned Frogs own identical records. If Alabama beats Mississippi State, they move somewhere into the top 4 spots. Mississippi State would probably not drop to number 5 or lower, and that means that TCU or Florida moves out of the Top 4 CFP spots. If Mississippi State beats Alabama, #6 Arizona State and #7 Baylor will move closer to securing a playoff spot at the end of the year. FSU will probably win out, but their schedule has not been that difficult. #9 Auburn has played the toughest Division I schedule this year, and plays Alabama the last game of the season. So the world will be watching the outcome of the Alabama - Mississippi State game.

For the Bulldogs to defeat Nick Saban and the Tide of Alabama, Mississippi State QB and Heisman Trophy hopeful Dak Prescott will need to play the game of his life. Alabama plays in huge "national implication games" 2 to 5 times every year. And Saban has coached up 4 National Titles (3 with Bama) over the last 11 years. The Crimson Tide also allow just an unbelievable 2.8 yards per rush, 5th in the nation. So Mississippi State will have to throw the football, and throw it effectively. Prescott can gain yardage with his legs as well, and big gainers off of the play action pass can give Mississippi what they need to win what is probably going to be a very close contest. It takes a team to win a football game, but in games of this stature, one player usually makes the difference. Prescott, with 11 of his teams 29 rushing touchdowns and 18 more through the air, needs to put the Bulldogs on his back for his team to retain its #1 national ranking.

The Crimson Tide ranks 3rd in the nation in rushing defense, allowing less than 9 yards per game. The Bulldogs average 254.9 rushing yards per game, good for 16th in the country. So on both sides of that rushing figure, the numbers should probably meet halfway. That means that the Bulldogs will have to count on Dak Prescott throwing the football. Mississippi State ranks just 39th in passing yardage overall. And while the Alabama Crimson Tide averages 206 yards per game rushing, Mississippi gives up 127 yards per contest. This means that Alabama could have some success running the football, which would open up the passing lanes for QB Blake Sims. Alabama beats Mississippi State if their overall defense continues to show up (4th overall in the nation), and if their passing defense (14th) can get pressure on Prescott.

Alabama can lose to Mississippi State, defeat Auburn at the end of the year and still sneak into the CFP. It is not likely, but it can happen. If Mississippi State loses to Alabama, they still must beat intrastate rival and #10 ranked Ole Miss at the end of the year. A loss there after losing to the Tide could drop them out of the Top 5, possibly as low as #7 or #8 depending on what the other teams in the Top 10 do. UGA plays Auburn on Saturday. A Bulldogs win could make Auburn look less impressive in the eyes of the CFP selection committee. Beating Auburn at the end of the year is a must for the Tide, but would be even more important if you the War Eagles lose to Georgia this Saturday. Mississippi State controls its own destiny. A victory against Alabama followed by a win against archrival Ole Miss, and they retain the #1 spot. The fallout of the Mississippi State - Alabama game this Saturday will only be known when the new CFP rankings come out next Wednesday. Our prediction? The disciplined defensive edge and line play and coaching of Bama means a slight 20 - 17 Tide victory.